InstaFreight - The New Internet for Global Trade

Air is fast, ocean is cheap—but where’s the cutoff in 2025? Use this mini calculator to find your break-even and follow the playbook to make calls with confidence.

Interactive

Break-even: fly or float?

2025 context

What’s different this year

Air belly capacity largely restored; spot volatility lower than 2021–23 peaks.
Ocean schedule reliability improved, but regional disruptions still spike lead times.
Inventory carrying costs remain elevated—time has monetary weight.

Cost vs speed quadrant for ocean and air — Cost–speed trade-off: air shortens cash cycles; ocean maximizes margin.

Decision matrix: when to fly

Ocean vs air decision matrix — High value-to-weight + tight deadline → lean air. Stable demand + high volume → lean ocean.

Signal	Lean Ocean	Lean Air
Value/weight	Low/medium	High
Demand certainty	Stable	Launch/promos/stockouts risk
Volume	High, predictable	Low–medium, urgent
Lead-time slack	Plenty	Minimal

Lead-time bands (popular lanes)

Lead-time bands across popular lanes in 2025 — Use local market intel for current bands; this view keeps your math honest.

Preflight checklist

Dims & chargeable weight

DG / lithium battery check

Incoterms & insurance aligned

Customs data (HS, value, origin)

Pickup & delivery time windows

How the calculator decides (the simple model)

Let Δdays = oceanDays − airDays. The air premium is (airRate − oceanRate) × weight. Choose air if: (airRate − oceanRate) × weight ≤ Δdays × valuePerDay.

Break-even curve illustration — At the break-even ridge, the time value equals the air premium.

海上 vs 航空 2025：損益分岐点計算機とプレイブック